What are some of these connections?
Thomas Knutson, climate researcher at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has published a number of articles since 2019, including a recent review of the research on the sciencebrief.org website that highlights the links with the strongest evidence. These researchers recognized that a warming world is likely to trigger stronger tropical storms and contribute to increased flooding due to rising sea levels. The scientists also said precipitation is likely to increase in tropical storms as a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. The team also suggested that the proportion of severe storms has increased, although the total number of storms has remained roughly the same around the world.
“We are seeing an increase in the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane status, Category 3 and above,” said Dr. Emanuel. “We can clearly see that in the satellite data.”
James Kossin, also at NOAA, has done research to further support the idea that hurricanes are getting worse. As the warming continued, he suggested, “You will see intensities like you’ve never seen before,” even storms with winds of 250 mph. (Large hurricanes, starting with Category 3, have wind speeds between 111 and 129 miles per hour. A Category 5 storm, currently the strongest classification, has a speed of 250 km / h and more.) “It’s only a matter of time “, he said.
Other research suggests that once hurricanes land, they may weaken more slowly and increase their destructive capabilities. Storms slow down, persist as they approach, and spread the damage over longer periods of time.
According to Dr. Kossin has increased local precipitation by 41 percent between the greater water vapor in the atmosphere and the slowdown of the storm, due to storms moving over land. In addition, the storms’ tracks are shifting away from the tropics and moving further north, with a subsequent expansion of the area of storm risk.
The area of greatest debate is whether climate change is playing a role in the increasing number of hurricanes in the Atlantic. Recent research suggests that human actions play an important role, although not all of these actions are directly related to climate change.
The more conservative faction of scientists attributes much of the surge in storms to natural variability and a cycle of ocean warming and cooling known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. NOAA scientists cited the phenomenon as one of the main factors driving the forecast of an active season last year. Other climatologists, including Pennsylvania State University’s Michael Mann, have expressed doubts as to whether the vibration even exists.